Predicting demographic trends more accurately
Insights from research at HEC Lausanne-UNIL | Understanding demographic trends is essential for political decision-makers and numerous organizations, such as pension funds. While previous studies have been able to show the impact of causes of death on life expectancy, the research carried out by Professor Séverine Arnold and her co-authors take the analysis a step further.
The new model developed by Prof. Séverine Arnold and her co-authors allows organizations to assess more accurately the impact of certain events that affect life expectancy – such as introducing a new drug, a new safety law or political initiative – on the age pyramid of future populations.
How does introducing a new law, such as making crash helmets obligatory for cyclists, for example – affect the age pyramid of the future population? And why is this kind of information arousing interest among businesses and politicians?
Find out more in the article published on HEC Lausanne’s research blog.
Get to know more about:
- Prof. Séverine Arnold: a professor in the Department of Actuarial Science, Séverine Arnold has a particular interest in longevity risks, modelling mortality rates, social security and pension funds.
- Department of Actuarial Science: among other things, this department studies theories of risk and credibility, welfare systems, stochastic models in insurance and the use of mathematics in finance.
par Chantal Behar